HUMAN POTENTIAL RETURN

Potential, quantified.

Build the financial case for a pathway forward.

iIllustrative scenario. Replace assumptions with local evidence. Returns are modelled across the public sector, not council budget savings.Recalculates live

01 / CONFIGURE

Your programme

5 years

5-YEAR FISCAL RETURNBase case

—

public-sector return per £1 invested

—net return on investment

Five-year net fiscal saving—After costs · discounted

Break-even point—First discounted cumulative crossing

Additional job outcomes—Adjusted for attribution & displacement

THE TRAJECTORY

From investment to return

Cumulative net value

Initial investment —5-year gross fiscal return —

WHERE VALUE ACCRUES

Fiscal return by source

NHS capacity valueNon-cash value · excluded from HPR—

02 / STRESS TEST

How resilient is the case?

Compare lower outcomes and higher costs with your base case.

Outcome change ppCost change %

Illustrative stress tests, not confidence intervals. Only entry outcomes and all programme costs vary; other assumptions stay fixed.

03 / THE DETAIL

Your five-year forecast

Base case · GBP

Five-year fiscal forecast, with upfront costs at month zero
Year	Active workers¹	Benefit savings	Tax receipts	NHS cash	Programme cost	Net value²	Cumulative²

¹ Annual average additional workers; fractional values are expected outcomes. ² Discounted. Other cash columns are undiscounted.

04 / OPEN BY DESIGN

A model you can explain.

Every result follows the assumptions you enter. This is a fiscal planning model, not an independently validated forecast or a full social cost-benefit appraisal.

HM Treasury appraisal guidance ↗

How HPR is calculated

HPR = present value of benefit reductions + incremental tax receipts + cash-releasing NHS savings, divided by present value of programme costs. Net saving subtracts costs from returns. Gross wages and non-cash NHS capacity are excluded from fiscal return.

Counterfactual, timing & retention

Additional workers = cohort × (programme employment rate − employment rate without programme) × attribution × (1 − displacement). All outcome starters enter together after the selected delay. Retention compounds after each 12 months in employment; no replacements or re-entries are modelled. The same benefit mix applies to all additional workers.

Costs, discounting & break-even

Setup and per-participant delivery costs occur at month zero. Annual follow-on support is paid evenly in every year, including before job entry. Returns accrue monthly after the delay. Each monthly flow is discounted by (1 + annual discount rate) raised to month ÷ 12. Break-even is the first discounted cumulative crossing, interpolated within a month; it does not guarantee that later costs cannot take the balance negative again.

Evidence, scope & limitations

All starting amounts, outcome rates and tax assumptions are illustrative, not official benefit entitlements, tax calculations or demonstrated NCE impact. The editable 3.5% discount rate is a modelling assumption. Benefits can continue in work: enter actual expected reductions. NHS reductions require evidence and may release capacity rather than cash. Avoid counting the same reduction twice. Central government and NHS returns are not automatically cash available to the commissioning council. Taxes and benefits are transfers in a social appraisal; this model does not claim a Green Book social benefit-cost ratio.

Prices stay constant; there is no inflation, wage growth, new cohort intake or replacement of leavers. Negative incremental outcomes remain negative. Positive health effects outside employment are not modelled. Inputs are not saved when you leave; export the model to retain the assumptions and results.